El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

BIG TRADE OR NO TRADE LIKELY FOR THE SOX

According to Will Carroll, “…Synvisc is quick-acting and is removed by the body, putting him on the DL now would indicate that it didn't work…” But Lowell felt good and wanted to play tomorrow . Either the Sox are taking a more cautious course of action with the third baseman or Lowell is trying to gut it out similar to the end of last year. Regardless, it is unlikely that Lowell will have a prolonged stint on the DL, which could complicate the Sox roster management.

The Sox probably won’t be acquiring a Nick Johnson or Adam LaRoche since it would be at the expense of Mark Kotsay, without an additional move. The versatile veteran is necessary due to the fragility of Drew, Rocco’s inability to play everyday, Jon Van Every out for the rest of the year and Ellsbury desire to run through walls. Unless the Sox acquire a right-handed hitting RF that can handle center, like Ryan Spilborghs, then a big name first or third baseman is “not walking through that door.”

WHO TO BLAME FOR PEDs PROBLEM?

If you want to blame the easy target, Donald Fehr, for PEDs, then your argument should be based on his lack of leadership.  He had a soap box but did use it or speak loudly enough.  Fehr did not step outside of the normal union business box and into the PEDs issue. 

Unlike the owners, MLBPA’s main concern is not revenue growth; just that the players receive their “fair” percentage.  So if the MLBPA did not forecast a decline in the rate of revenue expansion caused by any PEDs PR problems (and so far they would be right), then it should not, and was not high on their priority list.  The same rationale is valid for the owners.  Unless it impacted their pocketbooks, PEDs was out of both the owners and MLBPA’s main area of responsibility. 

But not for Bud Selig, as the Commissioner of Baseball, he should have had “the best interest of baseball” on his brain.  If Selig was a strong leader, he would have defied his fellow owners and locked out the players in 2002 until they accepted tougher PEDs rules. 
 
Of course, the using PEDs players are to blame.  Selig, though, carries the vast majority of the responsibility for creating an environment that allowed the abuse to continue, not Fehr/MLBPA or the owners.  Selig should have more aggressively addressed the PEDs problem, as it is under his job description.  The Office of the Commissioner of Baseball was created, in part, to deal with these issues.

WITH MONEY TO SPEND, NO PRESSING NEEDS COULD BRANDON WEBB COME TO BOSTON - PURE SPECULATION, AS ALWAYS

With David Ortiz looking like Big Papi, Lowrie and Smoltz almost ready to return, the Sox are likely to keep up their strong play. The Olde Towne Team is league average or better in every underlying measure other than fielding metrics. The return of Lowrie and a healthier Mike Lowell combined with better play from essentially last year's good defensive team could result in turning more balls in play into outs.

A drop off in Runs Scored could come if Ortiz does not continue to offset Youk's return to normal from a Ted Williams' type line and Jason Bay regresses to his normal production levels. Although the left fielder could be having a career year, Bay Being Canadian is in a prime and contract year. If he keeps this up, BBC would hit about 85% of his top PECOTA projection. Regardless, Runs Against should fall with the rotation rounding into form and better glove work. Hence, the Sox run differential and likely winning percentage will stay on its current pace for 96 wins.

No additions outside of the organization is necessary. Maybe a tweak to the bench like swapping bad contracts (Lugo to KC for Jose Guillen?). If a significant trade is made, it would primarily be for 2010 and beyond like acquiring Brandon Webb.

If Webb…“needs a significant surgical procedure, the Diamondbacks will be hesitant to pick up the 2010 option on his contract, which is worth $8.5 million. They instead could buy out the option for $2 million, making Webb a free agent.” says Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic.

If the former Cy Young winner will not pitch again in 2009 and will be bought out by the D-Backs but could be ready this time next year, then the Sox could be interested at the right price. The price might be the Olde Towne Team picking up the remaining $2.167M of Webb’s salary and his $8.5M option for 2010 or about $1M more than what the Sox will pay a healthy Smoltz. If they wanted a prospect and not a minor league lifer, they would have to contribute to Webb’s salary.

The D-Backs tenuous financial state may push this type of trade forward without any prospects heading to the desert. The Sox would leverage their balance sheet, staff acumen (medical and managerial) and current on-field strengths for a leg up next season.

*** Posts are going to be about once a week since I've found Twitter so follow El Guapo's Ghost. It is not lame. Twitter has a questionable brand right now; just like blogs and facebook did a year or so ago. It will pass too.

RED SOX ROTATION…MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING

The conversation about what to do with the rotation, since Smoltz is ready, is somewhat futile. First off, this is a rich person’s problem. It is a good thing. Second, after a google search the handwriting is on the Green Monster as to what will happen between now and the Break. The second Dice Man (similar career paths?) is not 100%. He will likely be heading to the DL with Smoltz taking his spot in the rotation - problem solved. Matsuzaka will return in the middle of the week before the Break to give everyone five days off between starts.

Even if no one goes on the 15-day DL, Smoltz will head to the pen with Daniel Bard going down I-95 to work on his breaking ball. (Both Bard, Buchholz and Bowden are only a phone call away.) The future HOFer is fine pitching in relief (probably due to the bonus clause in his contract). As Justin Masterson did early in the year, Smoltz could easily transition back to a starter prior to the Break, if necessary. During the Break, he could have a minor league start to stay stretched out just in case a trade happened in the coming two weeks.

As for Penny, as you probably have guessed is staying in the rotation. At this point, it benefits both him due to his bonus terms and the Sox by, hopefully, increasing his trade value. According to Jon Heyman, the Phillies, Mets and Cards have interest in Penny but also have higher priorities. A deal involving Penny will likely be at the deadline. Hence, necessitating the plans outlined above.

*** Click to follow El Guapo's Ghost on Twitter.

HOW SWEEP IT IS...BRING ON THE ONE-YEAR WONDERS

The MFY clearly have pitching issues. Wang is not right. Other than CC, no starter has a better than 2-to-1 K/BB ratio. And the pen is a mess. The MFY's pitchers SUCK! Now onto that second class city between NYC and DC that wasn't the setting for one of the greatest TV shows ever.

Even though Philly won the W.S. last year and they have the Liberty Bell, any major city that is best known for a type of fast food and a movie is just sad. At least Cleveland has the Rock-n-Roll Hall of Fame and they’re not Det-Riot.

WHAT TO DO AT DH?

The Sox have three options at DH.  The course taken will depend on Big Papi’s production over the next month or so because the last few have sucked.
 
Scenario 1: Ortiz continues to suck and gets released.   He is replaced by a Nick Johnson, Aubrey Huff, Adam LaRoche, etc.  As long as Ortiz is on the roster, he is going to get the majority of the playing time, which would make a deal of this magnitude foolish.  If a change has to be made, it should be a clean break a la Nomar in 2004. 
 
Scenario 2: Ortiz improves to hit a line of 250/350/400 from here on out.  He is neither hurting nor helping the lineup against RHP but needs to be platooned versus southpaws.  In this case, the Sox could add a Jamey Carroll type – a RHB that can play left and the infield.  The addition would allow Tito to roll Youk, Lowell, Pedrioa and Bay through the DH hole thereby giving each a half day off during the dog days.  Nick Green could be that guy, but my watch says it is almost midnight and that’s when Green turns orange…back into a pumpkin. 
 
Scenario 3: The Indians are throwing in the towel for 2009 and looking towards 2010.  Cleveland is confident that the combination of Kelly Shoppach and top prospect, Carlos Santana, can be nearly as productive as Victor Martinez would be in 2010.  Hence, the Indians will shop V-Mart in-season (Cliff Lee will not be dealt).  But not needing to move the All-Star and being under contract for a 245 games, Mark Shapiro will look for more than received last summer for C.C. Sabathia. Thus, it would take two top prospects plus two other lower level prospects to bring Martinez to Boston. It would be a high price to pay, although the catcher would be a perfect fit as he could share time behind the plate, at first and DH for the remaining of this year and next.

*** Click to follow El Guapo's Ghost on Twitter.

THE FIXABLE ISSUE IS AT DH NOT SHORT
 
It is difficult it is for a hitter to overcome a wrist injury, as Jed Lowrie is trying to accomplish.  According to Will Carroll, most players initially have a loss of power and bat control. [Carroll tweeted the above about wrist injuries a few days ago, but today, June 9th, repeated that Lowrie's issue is more like a broken arm than a wrist injury, which should be less of a issue at the plate. Regardless, I'm still skeptical of Lowrie just not as much.] This would translate into fewer homers and more strikeouts. After only 300 plate appearances in the Show, it seems unlikely he will be the answer at short in 2009. 

Unfortunately, quality two way shortstops are rarely available on the trade market.  When Rickie Weeks went down, even the faint thought of a J.J. Hardy blockbuster deal was dead. (The Brewers have an excellent shortstop, Alcides Escobar, in AAA). Old friend, Orlando Cabrera, would appear to be an option, but he may not be an upgrade given his play to date.  It is rare that teams give up on players that play in the middle of the diamond and can hit. 

Shortstop is likely to be a weakness all year. Although if the Sox can get production from the DH spot, which is a relatively easy issue to resolve (more on this soon), Argenis Diaz should see some time. He is a wizard with the leather, but not much with the stick even in Portland. If none of the options at short are going to hit, play the plus defender that doesn’t cost the Sox anything. Diaz could be the Olde Towne Team’s everyday shortstop in August.

THE DIFFERENCE IN JAPANESE IMPORTS

In a profile piece on Junichi Tazawa, is a swipe taken at Daisuke Matsuzaka?

Tazawa still has plenty of work to do, but it would appear the Red Sox are going to give him the time he needs to make himself major league ready. But because he has no professional experience prior to this year, he is not set in his ways.

The article then goes on to articulate a Red Sox philosophy.

“One of the things we try to teach in the organization is pitching to contact,” said Sea Dogs pitching coach Mike Cather, who pitched parts of three seasons in the big leagues with the Atlanta Braves. “The more pitches hitters see, the more difficult it is to get them out. Having him throw a pitch he has conviction with, rather than throwing a ball because he doesn’t want to throw the pitch, is way more important. When he takes that upon himself, that’s a big step.”

*** Click to follow El Guapo's Ghost on Twitter.

PROCURING AMATEUR TALENT

The MLB amateur draft is eight days away. Over the last few drafts, the Sox have demonstrated two trends:

1) selecting pitchers who came out of the pen and can be developed into starters,
2) meeting the bonus demands of "tough signs" in the middle to end of the single digit rounds.

My guess is that the Sox like the fact that college relievers have fewer innings on their arms than three year starters. It probably lowers the risk of injury in their projection model. If Drew Storen is available, the Sox might be tempted to select the closer from Stanford.

The Olde Towne Team also throws the green around to acquire talent that some clubs determine are imprudent expenditures. It seems recently though that more clubs have been matching or even exceeding the Sox amateur draft investments. If the trend continues, we could see them select questionable "signability" players earlier than the fifth round.

For FREE updates on the Sox draft go over to Soxprospects.com

*** Click to follow El Guapo's Ghost on Twitter.

FRANCOEUR TO BOSTON - NOT

Even though the Sox trio of right fielders with major league contracts is a relatively unhealthy bunch, they do not need to trade for the out machine known as Jeff Francoeur.  He just doesn’t fit the Olde Towne Team.  The rumor is crazy. Maybe Francoeur or his family started the trade rumors to Boston.

***


Hanging with Mr. Hunter: Big Papi is entertaining.

*** Click to follow El Guapo's Ghost on Twitter.