El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

ANOTHER MONEY PIT

By trying to win the World Series every year, they don't win it in any year, digging themselves a deeper and deeper hole. They've already committed $145 million to 12 players…

Of course, Ken Rosenthal was referring to the MFY in the above quote, but he could be writing a similar statement about the Sox this time next year. Whoever is running the Sox needs to be fully aware of this ominous potential only a year away. Sticking with the past core of players, including resigning Damon, Timlin and Mueller, for another run could be a mistake beyond 2006.

The Sox will likely work Pedroia in the lineup splitting time with Cora, find 500-600 PAs for Youkilis and have Paplebon coming in from the pen. It is a similar integration that the MFY did with Cano and Wang. (Even though the Sox like to begin future starters in the pen, Pap could be the exception because he has performed as a reliever for a few months, will be past the injury nexus age of 24, and has less innings on his right arm than most due to his closer duties in college. On the other hand, the Sox have five starters under contract and for projection purposes it is easier to have him as a reliever.) Regardless of the forecasted productive infusion of homegrown talent, the Sox will need to make significant long-term financial commitments ($20 million per year) to a top pitcher (Burnett, B.J. Ryan or Wagner) and Damon to realistically get to 95 wins and October baseball. Under this scenario, the Sox would have an estimated $98.5 million (assuming options are exercised) to 10 players all over the age of 30 and an average of 34 going into 2007. (The Sox could get creative resulting in lowering both dollars and age, but it is unlikely to be substantial given the market – increase revenue/player budgets/demand and few premium free agents/low supply.)

If the Sox decide to just add to the club’s core, 2006 will likely be another fun and competitive season for the Olde Towne Team. A large revenue team is in a position to extend their success cycle a few years, unlike a smaller market team (i.e. Cleveland), but it will eventually fall if cheap production can’t supplement or replace underperforming highly paid players. Hence, the Sox evaluation of Hanley, Lester, Anibal Sanchez, Hansen, Murphy and the like’s ability to contribute in 2007 has to be a critical factor in deciding the direction – tweak or reload the roster - of the organization this winter.