Sunday, March 20, 2011
THE FANTASY LIFE
With many owners drafting fantasy baseball teams in the near future, I wanted to discuss some of my unconventional thoughts on the subject. The first can be applied to both draft and auction formats; the other only in auctions.
In most fantasy baseball leagues, pitchers are not valued enough. Before adjusting for the added health risk of the throwing a baseball too often, all pitchers should be valued the same as all hitters because they contribute to the same number of scoring categories in the vast majority of leagues. Since most leagues have fewer eligible pitching spots than hitters, pitchers should be valued more than hitters. In my League, we play nine hitters and five pitchers with two bench spots so the maximum number of pitchers that can contribute is seven. All things being equal, pitchers are worth a minimum 28% more than a hitter in my League.
Of course, not all things are equal. A hitter’s fantasy statistics are less dependent on their teammates compared to a pitcher’s. A hitter’s fantasy production will be less prone to year-to-year fluctuations than a pitcher’s. And we already touched upon the increased health risk. Hence, a fantasy pitcher offers more risk and reward than the equivalent hitter. But if you play in a keeper league, as I do, holding onto a low draft pick or a cheap good pitcher can be an advantage since your team is minimizing risk (high round pick or low cost) with the same amount of reward or 28% over a hitter in my League.
When my team was going nowhere last year, I implemented the strategy mentioned above by trading for David Price and Clay Buchholz, who each cost only $2 or 2% of the budget. The newly acquired pair teamed with Neftali
Feliz to be the foundation of my club and auction strategy going forward – spend on hitters since spending on high risk-high reward pitchers is not necessary. This fantasy strategy can be applied to many leagues.
Another plan that I used and haven’t seen floating around in the series of tubes was to acquire two completely different hitters. The opposites can complement one another and cost you less than two hitters without any major flaws. My combination of Mark Reynolds and Ichiro Suzuki should average out to 270-75-20-75-20 at a cost of $26 or 26% of the budget. This is a play that should only be tried in auctions. It is too risky for draft formats.
Good luck to all owners not in my League.
With many owners drafting fantasy baseball teams in the near future, I wanted to discuss some of my unconventional thoughts on the subject. The first can be applied to both draft and auction formats; the other only in auctions.
In most fantasy baseball leagues, pitchers are not valued enough. Before adjusting for the added health risk of the throwing a baseball too often, all pitchers should be valued the same as all hitters because they contribute to the same number of scoring categories in the vast majority of leagues. Since most leagues have fewer eligible pitching spots than hitters, pitchers should be valued more than hitters. In my League, we play nine hitters and five pitchers with two bench spots so the maximum number of pitchers that can contribute is seven. All things being equal, pitchers are worth a minimum 28% more than a hitter in my League.
Of course, not all things are equal. A hitter’s fantasy statistics are less dependent on their teammates compared to a pitcher’s. A hitter’s fantasy production will be less prone to year-to-year fluctuations than a pitcher’s. And we already touched upon the increased health risk. Hence, a fantasy pitcher offers more risk and reward than the equivalent hitter. But if you play in a keeper league, as I do, holding onto a low draft pick or a cheap good pitcher can be an advantage since your team is minimizing risk (high round pick or low cost) with the same amount of reward or 28% over a hitter in my League.
When my team was going nowhere last year, I implemented the strategy mentioned above by trading for David Price and Clay Buchholz, who each cost only $2 or 2% of the budget. The newly acquired pair teamed with Neftali
Feliz to be the foundation of my club and auction strategy going forward – spend on hitters since spending on high risk-high reward pitchers is not necessary. This fantasy strategy can be applied to many leagues.
Another plan that I used and haven’t seen floating around in the series of tubes was to acquire two completely different hitters. The opposites can complement one another and cost you less than two hitters without any major flaws. My combination of Mark Reynolds and Ichiro Suzuki should average out to 270-75-20-75-20 at a cost of $26 or 26% of the budget. This is a play that should only be tried in auctions. It is too risky for draft formats.
Good luck to all owners not in my League.
Monday, March 07, 2011
NEITHER THE RED SOX NOR THE YANKEES IS A MODEL OF HEALTH AND WELLNESS
After enduring a season of injuries that culminated in the lack of October Red Sox baseball, it is time to take a closer look the impact player health will have on the 2011 season. Will Carroll has been publishing his Team Health Reports for a number of years now that assess the risk a player will have an injury. And it is our good fortune that Sports Illustrated has them online for free.
The Red Sox report did not have many surprises nor did the Olde Towne Team’s chief rival, the MFY. The Sox have a number of high profile players with moderate (a yellow light or 30 to 50 percent chance of injury) to high risk (a red light or a better than 50 percent shot of getting hurt). In contrast, the MFY have fewer players that should be of concern.
The entire Sox infield is coming off injury plagued campaigns and are all rated as yellow lights. On a positive note, Jed Lowrie can fill in at any spot, but isn’t a model of health himself. Yamaico Navarro, who made an appearance last year, would be next in line unless the future gold glover, Jose Iglesias, makes tremendous progress with the wood. The Sox infield has some health risk, but the versatility of some starters and the backup make it unlikely that Navarro or Iglesias see significant playing time.
Even though Jacoby Ellsbury, J.D. Drew are red lights and Mike Cameron, at best, is a yellow, the Sox outfield should be productive throughout the season. Ellsbury had a freakish injury that is unlikely to happen again this season. The center fielder’s “toughness” has been questioned like Drew’s but Cameron and Darnell McDonald can fill in adequately for either over a DL stint. Carl Crawford rounds out the outfield and is a green light. (I still can’t believe he is a Red Sox player, btw.)
Jon Lester is also a go-go green. Clay Buchholz and John Lackey are yellows. Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka are stop lights. Tim Wakefield will get the call if one of the five starters can’t take a turn, but like his infield counterpart has had his injury issues too. Felix Doubront, who was shut down due to elbow tightness, has been erased from the seventh spot. The uber Spring Training hyped Andrew Miller should be next in line. If Doubront or Miller are making regular turns in the rotation, then the Sox will be competing with the MFY for another starter in July.
Unlike the Red Sox, the MFY top position players are low health risks. Brett Gardner is a “low yellow” or near green light. The relative lack of quality backups should not hamper the Bronx Bombers. (Catchers and designated hitters are excluded as they are usually on the opposite ends of the health spectrum - catchers - red and DHs - green. Relievers are also not discussed here since they are all “…like a box a chocolates.”)
As for the guys that start the game, C.C. Sabathia is a horse that gets a green but beyond him each is a red light. The other starters not only need to pitch better than many are projecting but also stay healthy.
Bet on the Yankees being in on every possible starter (Chris Carpenter, Francisco Liriano, etc.) from now until August 31, 2011 as well as a power struggle between Brian Cashman and the brothers Stein. This is not your father’s Yankees.
After enduring a season of injuries that culminated in the lack of October Red Sox baseball, it is time to take a closer look the impact player health will have on the 2011 season. Will Carroll has been publishing his Team Health Reports for a number of years now that assess the risk a player will have an injury. And it is our good fortune that Sports Illustrated has them online for free.
The Red Sox report did not have many surprises nor did the Olde Towne Team’s chief rival, the MFY. The Sox have a number of high profile players with moderate (a yellow light or 30 to 50 percent chance of injury) to high risk (a red light or a better than 50 percent shot of getting hurt). In contrast, the MFY have fewer players that should be of concern.
The entire Sox infield is coming off injury plagued campaigns and are all rated as yellow lights. On a positive note, Jed Lowrie can fill in at any spot, but isn’t a model of health himself. Yamaico Navarro, who made an appearance last year, would be next in line unless the future gold glover, Jose Iglesias, makes tremendous progress with the wood. The Sox infield has some health risk, but the versatility of some starters and the backup make it unlikely that Navarro or Iglesias see significant playing time.
Even though Jacoby Ellsbury, J.D. Drew are red lights and Mike Cameron, at best, is a yellow, the Sox outfield should be productive throughout the season. Ellsbury had a freakish injury that is unlikely to happen again this season. The center fielder’s “toughness” has been questioned like Drew’s but Cameron and Darnell McDonald can fill in adequately for either over a DL stint. Carl Crawford rounds out the outfield and is a green light. (I still can’t believe he is a Red Sox player, btw.)
Jon Lester is also a go-go green. Clay Buchholz and John Lackey are yellows. Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka are stop lights. Tim Wakefield will get the call if one of the five starters can’t take a turn, but like his infield counterpart has had his injury issues too. Felix Doubront, who was shut down due to elbow tightness, has been erased from the seventh spot. The uber Spring Training hyped Andrew Miller should be next in line. If Doubront or Miller are making regular turns in the rotation, then the Sox will be competing with the MFY for another starter in July.
Unlike the Red Sox, the MFY top position players are low health risks. Brett Gardner is a “low yellow” or near green light. The relative lack of quality backups should not hamper the Bronx Bombers. (Catchers and designated hitters are excluded as they are usually on the opposite ends of the health spectrum - catchers - red and DHs - green. Relievers are also not discussed here since they are all “…like a box a chocolates.”)
As for the guys that start the game, C.C. Sabathia is a horse that gets a green but beyond him each is a red light. The other starters not only need to pitch better than many are projecting but also stay healthy.
Bet on the Yankees being in on every possible starter (Chris Carpenter, Francisco Liriano, etc.) from now until August 31, 2011 as well as a power struggle between Brian Cashman and the brothers Stein. This is not your father’s Yankees.
Thank you - Red Sox!
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