Sunday, November 28, 2010
HOW MANY DAYS UNTIL THE START OF SPRING TRAINING?
Since it is starting to feel like winter, I am day dreaming of spring training. Unfortunately, a trip to Fort Myers is not in the cards this year.
The last and only time I packed up my suitcase for Red Sox spring training was back in 2008. We didn’t get to see a game because the Olde Towne Team was playing in Japan. But it was cool hanging out at the minor-league complex. Ryan Kalish, Jed Lowrie and others were right next to me on their way to the practice fields.
If you are going to head south for the Sox, I have a tip and some other notes on travel:
* Do not stay near City of Palms Park. It is in kind of a sketchy neighborhood.
* If you have extra time, take the cruise to Key West. It is a wonderful and unique town in an increasing homogeneous America.
* Use a GPS to help find your way around.
* If you like to sleep when traveling like me, purchase a neck pillow. It makes sitting sleeping so much more tolerable. I am going to try the Smooth Trip Hedbed Inflatable one since it is hard to pack a pillow in your carry-on.
Since it is starting to feel like winter, I am day dreaming of spring training. Unfortunately, a trip to Fort Myers is not in the cards this year.
The last and only time I packed up my suitcase for Red Sox spring training was back in 2008. We didn’t get to see a game because the Olde Towne Team was playing in Japan. But it was cool hanging out at the minor-league complex. Ryan Kalish, Jed Lowrie and others were right next to me on their way to the practice fields.
If you are going to head south for the Sox, I have a tip and some other notes on travel:
* Do not stay near City of Palms Park. It is in kind of a sketchy neighborhood.
* If you have extra time, take the cruise to Key West. It is a wonderful and unique town in an increasing homogeneous America.
* Use a GPS to help find your way around.
* If you like to sleep when traveling like me, purchase a neck pillow. It makes sitting sleeping so much more tolerable. I am going to try the Smooth Trip Hedbed Inflatable one since it is hard to pack a pillow in your carry-on.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
VICTOR MARTINEZ IS A TIGER
I was half right. I predicted the correct contract terms for Victor Martinez, but I never thought the Red Sox would get outbid by the Tigers. C’mon…Really?!
The Yankees - yes. In certain circumstances the Mets, both L.A. teams, the Giants, Cubs, Rangers and Phillies, but the Tigers? By picking up David Ortiz’s option, the Sox demonstrated that they were not opposed to paying an over thirty DH $12.5 million per season. Martinez would probably be just a hitter in the final year. So what gives?
Perhaps, Yawkey Way has finally learned not to give old catchers long-term contracts? But it doesn’t seem like they are applying the theory correctly as Martinez will not strictly be behind the dish at the end of the deal.
Maybe, they see something in Jarrod Saltalamacchia because his numbers are not impressive at all? He has not hit since 2008...in AAA...in a good hitters league...in 64 plate appearances.
Could it be that acquiring the Tigers first-round pick tipped the scales for the Red Sox, since it is being reported that 2011 is going to be a deep draft? Also that the next CBA is likely to significantly change and possibly eliminate free agent compensation; thereby making picks in 2011 even more valuable than in the past? And the Olde Towne Team wants to stock up on picks because their most valuable assets on the farm are going to be traded for a mid-twenties middle of the order bat? Boy, I hope so.
I was half right. I predicted the correct contract terms for Victor Martinez, but I never thought the Red Sox would get outbid by the Tigers. C’mon…Really?!
The Yankees - yes. In certain circumstances the Mets, both L.A. teams, the Giants, Cubs, Rangers and Phillies, but the Tigers? By picking up David Ortiz’s option, the Sox demonstrated that they were not opposed to paying an over thirty DH $12.5 million per season. Martinez would probably be just a hitter in the final year. So what gives?
Perhaps, Yawkey Way has finally learned not to give old catchers long-term contracts? But it doesn’t seem like they are applying the theory correctly as Martinez will not strictly be behind the dish at the end of the deal.
Maybe, they see something in Jarrod Saltalamacchia because his numbers are not impressive at all? He has not hit since 2008...in AAA...in a good hitters league...in 64 plate appearances.
Could it be that acquiring the Tigers first-round pick tipped the scales for the Red Sox, since it is being reported that 2011 is going to be a deep draft? Also that the next CBA is likely to significantly change and possibly eliminate free agent compensation; thereby making picks in 2011 even more valuable than in the past? And the Olde Towne Team wants to stock up on picks because their most valuable assets on the farm are going to be traded for a mid-twenties middle of the order bat? Boy, I hope so.
Sunday, November 14, 2010
PRINCE FIELDER OR ADRIAN GONZALEZ AGAIN
Last week I wrote that the Red Sox should not trade for Adrian Gonzalez, but the more debatable point was that they should sign Prince Fielder next winter instead of the Padres‘ first baseman. The basis of my argument was that the Milwaukee’s slugger is younger with better comparable hitters and would not drop off as fast as Gonzalez with the bat.
The data and my calculations back up my assertion. In 2012, Fielder is projected to put up a 139 OPS+ at age twenty eight and then 137, 134, 124, 113, 116. By comparison, Gonzalez’s forecast is 142 OPS+ as a thirty year-old, and then 132, 116, 128. They look like similar hitters in 2012-2015, but many of Gonzalez’s comparables - and for that matter Fielder’s - were essentially out of baseball after the age of thirty three. Even after applying the Brewer first baseman’s comps to account for Petco, A_Gone has a projection that is only slightly better and still has the beyond thirty three issue.
Since both are likely to get more than a four year contract, the data suggests that Gonzalez is a riskier acquisition than Fielder. The Brewer first baseman’s bad body and lesser defensive reputation than A_Gone’s would seem to put on even ground a year away from free agency. I'll still take the younger guy looking for a break out season in the first two years of the contract.
***
For the numbers geeks, the projection calculation:
1) The forecast is calculated by first finding the player’s baseline production. It is simply a 60/30/10 model.
(YrOPS+ * 60%) + (Yr-1OPS+ * 30%) + (Yr-2OPS+ * 10%)
Then doing the same for each comparable hitter at the same age of the player to be projected.
Yr = most recent year
2) For each comp, the rate of change in OPS+ from their baseline is calculated through the end of their career or the age to be forecast. Each year’s rate of change is weighted based on their comp score to calculate a weighted average rate of change for each age to be projected.
(OPS+ - BL) / BL * CS
3) The weighted average rate of change for each age is applied to the player’s baseline production to find his forecast.
WavgRC * BLP
Last week I wrote that the Red Sox should not trade for Adrian Gonzalez, but the more debatable point was that they should sign Prince Fielder next winter instead of the Padres‘ first baseman. The basis of my argument was that the Milwaukee’s slugger is younger with better comparable hitters and would not drop off as fast as Gonzalez with the bat.
The data and my calculations back up my assertion. In 2012, Fielder is projected to put up a 139 OPS+ at age twenty eight and then 137, 134, 124, 113, 116. By comparison, Gonzalez’s forecast is 142 OPS+ as a thirty year-old, and then 132, 116, 128. They look like similar hitters in 2012-2015, but many of Gonzalez’s comparables - and for that matter Fielder’s - were essentially out of baseball after the age of thirty three. Even after applying the Brewer first baseman’s comps to account for Petco, A_Gone has a projection that is only slightly better and still has the beyond thirty three issue.
Since both are likely to get more than a four year contract, the data suggests that Gonzalez is a riskier acquisition than Fielder. The Brewer first baseman’s bad body and lesser defensive reputation than A_Gone’s would seem to put on even ground a year away from free agency. I'll still take the younger guy looking for a break out season in the first two years of the contract.
***
For the numbers geeks, the projection calculation:
1) The forecast is calculated by first finding the player’s baseline production. It is simply a 60/30/10 model.
(YrOPS+ * 60%) + (Yr-1OPS+ * 30%) + (Yr-2OPS+ * 10%)
Then doing the same for each comparable hitter at the same age of the player to be projected.
Yr = most recent year
2) For each comp, the rate of change in OPS+ from their baseline is calculated through the end of their career or the age to be forecast. Each year’s rate of change is weighted based on their comp score to calculate a weighted average rate of change for each age to be projected.
(OPS+ - BL) / BL * CS
3) The weighted average rate of change for each age is applied to the player’s baseline production to find his forecast.
WavgRC * BLP
Thank you - Red Sox!
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