El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

THANKSGIVING!

Dear Friends, Followers, Blog Readers,

Yeah, you are all getting the same note - settle down, you are all snowflakes. Have a great Thanksgiving! For various reasons this is the most American of holidays and my favorite. In case some of you forgot, I love turkey day since it is the one day that eating and drinking too much, then falling asleep watching football is socially acceptable or a normal Sunday for this guy. Anyway, I do have much to be thankful for but nobody wants to hear how great someone else $hit is… So eat drink & be merry.

HOW ROY HALLADAY COMES TO BOSTON?

As mentioned in the previous post, the Marlins are unlikely to trade Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson with a new park on the way. Currently, this leaves only Roy Halladay as an impact trade target for the Red Sox. If the old school workhorse is going to leverage his no-trade right into a contract extension at market rate like Johan Santana, then only a hand full of clubs can be considered to be in the running for his services.

The Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs have ownership issues so it is unlikely they make a financial splash this winter. The Mets will be players but Halladay may not view them as a contender. The Giants are likely to make an offense upgrade their first priority. This leaves the Red Sox, LAA of A, the MFY and the Phillies.

The following is a scenario that Halladay lands in Boston:

* The LAA of A gives up on resigning John Lackey. Hence, they would appear to be players for Halladay but they do not have as much depth on the farm. If Chone Figgins leaves the O.C., then Brandon Wood could slide in at the hot corner eliminating a possible piece that would bring Halladay west.

* The MFY sign Lackey, re-up Andy Pettitte and ink a leftfielder. The MFY do not make a trade to resolve their off season issues thereby holding on their prospects. They continue with their recent winter way of doing business in the Bronx - make more and spend more money to hold onto their top minor leaguers.

* The Phillies sign Cliff Lee to a Sabathia/Santana type contract. Now, “It’s like a baby New York” team does not need to go to the mattresses for Halladay or give up talent on the farm so soon again. And even without the workhorse from the north, the Phillies are still the overwhelming favorites for another pennant.

* The Sox do not ink Josh Beckett to an extension, which would moderately increase their desire for Halladay. The former Cy Young award winner would pair with Jon Lester beyond 2010 instead of Beckett. And in the upcoming season, Halladay would improve the club’s run prevention without taking away anything from a lineup that can be expected to be one of the best again next year.

The Jays move from their desire for "…one above-average impact guy than eight ordinary guys” since they only have one real dance partner remaining. It is a similar circumstance to the Santana trade from the Twins, as the Jays will accept a package that is not much greater than two 2011 top draft picks, although it appears Bill Smith took the “eight ordinary guys.” Hence, Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard will not be heading north.

The Red Sox have the depth in the farm to trade a pair or even three prospects. Kevin Goldstein commented after an article grading the Olde Towne Team’s prospects that…“They're 1-11 might not be crazy elite, but their 21-30 would rank very high, so there are a lot of options.”

The Olde Towne Team also has a financial motivation for the trade. NESN’s revenue likely declined last season due to both a ratings and number of subscribing households decline. Now, the Red Sox can partially justify the Halladay transactions with the projected incremental revenue from NESN. Assuming the “fans” who jumped off the bandwagon after the disappointing loss to the Rays leap back on with the dreams of a Halladay, Lester, Beckettt October rotation.

To sum up, if the three other probably suitors for the extension demanding Halladay attend to other issues first, the Red Sox could find the price palatable for the former Cy Young award winner. Ironically, the MFY could drive Halladay to Boston by acting quickly on Lackey and Figgins. Only time will tell if New England has another definition for the “Big Three.”

I CAN’T BELIEVE…I’VE GOT MORE ON HERMIDA


Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus made two very good points on the Hermida trade. The first is that the newly acquired outfielder has options remaining. Hence, Hermida can be the Sox expensive fifth outfielder in Pawtucket. This trade will not have much, if any impact on finding replacements for Jason Bay and Rocco Baldelli (a.k.a. a right-handed hitting platoon partner for J.D. Drew and a backup for Jacoby Ellsbury).

But it probably reduces the chance of the Sox acquiring Josh Johnson - my former trade target to be named later - as it frees up cash to sign him to a long-term deal. The top of the rotation starter and Hanley Ramirez can be on board when the Marlins open their new Park.

YOUR ARCH RIVAL WINS THE WORLD SERIES AND ALL I GOT WAS THIS LOUSY HERMIDA

Vermont native, Buster Olney was dead on during an interview on WEEI. He predicted the Sox would get Jeremy Hermida for a song due to the financial issues facing many clubs. And it was a steal, but for a player that does not fit the current makeup of this team unless the Sox are not going to sign Jason Bay. Hermida like Casey Kotchman should be pricey insurance policies, as they are not starters on a contending team, or moved for more complementary pieces for the Olde Towne Team. Hermida is a better fit on the MFY as they have a possible opening in leftfield. Thankfully, the Marlins did not want to wait, which seems ridiculous, and Brian Cashman has been preoccupied according to Olney…

“You know, it’s interesting, I talked to Brian Cashman two days ago, and he was sort of like, “Hey, what do you hear out there,” and I talked about the non-tender thing. And he said, “Boy, I kind of wish I had more time to get into it, but I don’t.” And I guarantee that today after he picks up his kids from school, he’ll be making phone calls and jumping into that market.”

ANALYZING THE RED SOX RUMORS

We discussed why Adrian Gonzalez is unlikely coming to Boston. Next up is Felix Hernandez. Roy Halladay will be added as well as the previously mentioned Hanley Ramirez and a trade target to be named later.

THEY DON’T GROW ON TREES EVEN WITH ALL THE RAIN IN SEATTLE

If your team is serious about winning a championship, then trading a young true #1 starter should be the last resort. These players are the most important component in going far in October. Plus, they are expensive in the free agent market (see: C.C. Sabathia’s $161M contract).

Only when an organization can not field a championship caliber team when they control their young true #1 starter should he be dealt. This should not be the case for the Mariners and Felix Hernandez, as the M’s have the financial means to sign the very young ace to be their cornerstone into the next decade. At only 24 years of age, Hernandez signing a four or five year deal would allow him for another large contract before his thirtieth birthday. It would appear to be a win-win for the M’s-Hernandez so it stands a high probability to getting accomplished.

Even if King Felix is being shopped, the Sox have fewer bullets after the Victor Martinez trade to exchange for Hernandez. Also, as we mentioned in an earlier post, Theo Epstein is…

"…trying to grow the organization to the point where we don't have to ever get a free agent. We're probably closer to that point now then we were two or three offseasons ago. It's a lesson learned for sure."

It would appear that the Red Sox do not want to move more prospects as it would likely necessitate further risky and expensive free agent acquisitions in the near future. But Yawkey Way has been known to make exceptions.