Monday, September 28, 2009
THE OLDE TOWNE TREASURY SHOULD SHOW JASON BAY THE BENJAMINS
The majority of free agent long-term contracts (three plus years) are bad investments since they mostly cover a player's declining years (post-30) and are paid according to his prime (pre-30) production seasons. Of course, we have exceptions and the Red Sox-Jason Bay situation is one of those cases.
Production Forecast
Even though Bay is on the wrong side of thirty and can't make contact on breaking balls down-and-away, the weighted average of his top comparables demonstrated a decline in production (OPS+) of only 1-2% in their age 31 and 32 seasons and 9.75% in the following year. (If you want the data and calculation, let me know in the comments section.) The Sox would likely get a top quarter outfielder in 2010-11 and then league average in the third season. Limited data is available for the fourth season and beyond rendering the projection somewhat irrelevant. In the field, as Bay ages his speed and outfield range will probably decline like most. Fortunately, playing 81 games at Fenway and having the DH option minimizes this issue.
Red Sox other options
The organization does not have a near ready power hitting outfielder to take Bay's spot. Without any marketable and movable players, a non-blockbuster trade is unlikely. The Sox will probably need to find a power hitting outfielder on the free agent market.
Other than Matt Holliday, who comes with more questions and a similar if not higher price tag, no outfielder is likely to produce to Bay's level in 2010 and 2011. With 2010 appearing to be the last season of the David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, Mike Lowell, and maybe Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield, Victor Martinez era, the Sox should be pushing all their chips into the center of the table.
After 2010, we could be in for a similar winter to 2004-5 when they decided against resigning many free agents (Pedro, Lowe, Orlando Cabrera), which assisted in yielding Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Clay Buchholz. It also means that the Olde Towne Treasury has plenty of resources after 2010 for Bay.
Prediction
Bay will sign for four years plus an option worth a guaranteed $75M. The Sox will be rolling the dice in year four but will be confident that the return in earlier years will offset any lost thereafter. Bay will give up an extra year from San Fran or the Mets to stay in Boston...well I hope so.
The majority of free agent long-term contracts (three plus years) are bad investments since they mostly cover a player's declining years (post-30) and are paid according to his prime (pre-30) production seasons. Of course, we have exceptions and the Red Sox-Jason Bay situation is one of those cases.
Production Forecast
Even though Bay is on the wrong side of thirty and can't make contact on breaking balls down-and-away, the weighted average of his top comparables demonstrated a decline in production (OPS+) of only 1-2% in their age 31 and 32 seasons and 9.75% in the following year. (If you want the data and calculation, let me know in the comments section.) The Sox would likely get a top quarter outfielder in 2010-11 and then league average in the third season. Limited data is available for the fourth season and beyond rendering the projection somewhat irrelevant. In the field, as Bay ages his speed and outfield range will probably decline like most. Fortunately, playing 81 games at Fenway and having the DH option minimizes this issue.
Red Sox other options
The organization does not have a near ready power hitting outfielder to take Bay's spot. Without any marketable and movable players, a non-blockbuster trade is unlikely. The Sox will probably need to find a power hitting outfielder on the free agent market.
Other than Matt Holliday, who comes with more questions and a similar if not higher price tag, no outfielder is likely to produce to Bay's level in 2010 and 2011. With 2010 appearing to be the last season of the David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, Mike Lowell, and maybe Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield, Victor Martinez era, the Sox should be pushing all their chips into the center of the table.
After 2010, we could be in for a similar winter to 2004-5 when they decided against resigning many free agents (Pedro, Lowe, Orlando Cabrera), which assisted in yielding Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Clay Buchholz. It also means that the Olde Towne Treasury has plenty of resources after 2010 for Bay.
Prediction
Bay will sign for four years plus an option worth a guaranteed $75M. The Sox will be rolling the dice in year four but will be confident that the return in earlier years will offset any lost thereafter. Bay will give up an extra year from San Fran or the Mets to stay in Boston...well I hope so.
Monday, September 21, 2009
THREESOME: PATS, REVISED A.L. PENNANT ODDS, BRUINS
* Where were the screen passes and draw plays to slow down the Jets pass rush? Unless Brady changed the play at the line, the Pats were out coached. Those words aren’t uttered too often. How much does that get factored into next week’s Free NFL picks?
* With the Twins back in the hunt - Baseball Prospectus has them at roughly a 17.6% shot at playing baseball beyond October 4th – my A.L. pennant odds are now: Twins 7.5to 1 and the Tigers 2.5:1. The Tigers line was discounted since they have a significant (17.6%) chance of not playing more than 162 in 2009. The Twins ranked 22nd - slightly behind LAA – but their probability of winning the pennant takes a nose dive with only 17.6% of getting to the second season. In summary, my odds for MLB baseball betting on the A.L. pennant are: MFY - 1:1, SOX - 1.5:1, DET - 2.5:1, LAA - 3.5:1, MIN - 7.5:1. Things will change when the schedule and pitching match ups are finalized.
* The questionable move was not trading Kessel. The Bruins appear to have gotten good value for the young sniper. The debatable transaction was giving Tim Thomas $20 million for his age 35-38 seasons. Kessel or Thomas was getting that salary cap space. The Bruins must have concluded that they are close to a Cup and Kessel’s production is less costly to replace than Thomas’. With Krejci, Ryder, Wheeler, and Kobasew on the right side of 30 plus Savard, the B’s have a good shot. It is just painful to trade another young goal scorer because since 1970 only five out of 39 championship teams did not have two or more players score 30 plus goals.
* Where were the screen passes and draw plays to slow down the Jets pass rush? Unless Brady changed the play at the line, the Pats were out coached. Those words aren’t uttered too often. How much does that get factored into next week’s Free NFL picks?
* With the Twins back in the hunt - Baseball Prospectus has them at roughly a 17.6% shot at playing baseball beyond October 4th – my A.L. pennant odds are now: Twins 7.5to 1 and the Tigers 2.5:1. The Tigers line was discounted since they have a significant (17.6%) chance of not playing more than 162 in 2009. The Twins ranked 22nd - slightly behind LAA – but their probability of winning the pennant takes a nose dive with only 17.6% of getting to the second season. In summary, my odds for MLB baseball betting on the A.L. pennant are: MFY - 1:1, SOX - 1.5:1, DET - 2.5:1, LAA - 3.5:1, MIN - 7.5:1. Things will change when the schedule and pitching match ups are finalized.
* The questionable move was not trading Kessel. The Bruins appear to have gotten good value for the young sniper. The debatable transaction was giving Tim Thomas $20 million for his age 35-38 seasons. Kessel or Thomas was getting that salary cap space. The Bruins must have concluded that they are close to a Cup and Kessel’s production is less costly to replace than Thomas’. With Krejci, Ryder, Wheeler, and Kobasew on the right side of 30 plus Savard, the B’s have a good shot. It is just painful to trade another young goal scorer because since 1970 only five out of 39 championship teams did not have two or more players score 30 plus goals.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
BIG BOY LEAGUE (A.K.A. AMERICAN LEAGUE) PLAYOFF PREVIEW
Back in 2007, Nate Silver and Dayn Perry determined that a power pitching staff, a good closer and defensive clubs won more playoff games. They measured it, as BP still does by using normalized strikeout rate, WXRL and FRAA rankings.
As it stands through 9/17 games, the A.L. score and rankings are as follows for the four playoff teams:
MFY - 13 - 1
SOX - 26 - 4
DET - 28 - 5
LAA - 45 - 13
I believe that FRAA rankings does not consider park effects and I'm suspect of all individual defensive metrics, so I'm substituting James Click's (now TB Rays staffer) PADE or Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency to account for a good glove club. After making that change only LAA's ranking varied significantly.
MFY - 17 - 3
SOX - 24 - 4
DET - 28 - 6
LAA - 45 - 21
LAA is clearly now the weakest likely playoff team in the A.L. Thankfully, it looks like out Sox will take them on in the ALDS (knock on wood).
Playing off of Silver and Perry's research and analysis, my theory is: In the playoffs, a team is facing the best pitchers and by definition they make fewer mistakes - less walks and balls hit hard. A lineup is also likely dealing with the best team defenses, even more so as they get further into October, so stringing together hits will be tough. Hence, the best way to score is by the long-ball. The more hitters that can take advantage of the few mistakes thrown have the best chance of putting crooked numbers on the score board.
Any hitter with twelve or more home runs was counted as a player with the ability to deposit a ball in the bleachers. After crunching the numbers, we get the following rankings:
MFY - 1
SOX - 3
DET - 6
LAA - 20
The MFY rise to the top of the pack again as they can write in a lineup with power one through nine. The Sox and LAA each move up a spot and the Tigers stay put at six.
Without knowing which teams will play in the three starter series, I would put the A.L. pennant odds at:
MFY - 1:1
SOX - 1.5:1
DET - 2:1
LAA - 3.5:1
Back in 2007, Nate Silver and Dayn Perry determined that a power pitching staff, a good closer and defensive clubs won more playoff games. They measured it, as BP still does by using normalized strikeout rate, WXRL and FRAA rankings.
As it stands through 9/17 games, the A.L. score and rankings are as follows for the four playoff teams:
MFY - 13 - 1
SOX - 26 - 4
DET - 28 - 5
LAA - 45 - 13
I believe that FRAA rankings does not consider park effects and I'm suspect of all individual defensive metrics, so I'm substituting James Click's (now TB Rays staffer) PADE or Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency to account for a good glove club. After making that change only LAA's ranking varied significantly.
MFY - 17 - 3
SOX - 24 - 4
DET - 28 - 6
LAA - 45 - 21
LAA is clearly now the weakest likely playoff team in the A.L. Thankfully, it looks like out Sox will take them on in the ALDS (knock on wood).
Playing off of Silver and Perry's research and analysis, my theory is: In the playoffs, a team is facing the best pitchers and by definition they make fewer mistakes - less walks and balls hit hard. A lineup is also likely dealing with the best team defenses, even more so as they get further into October, so stringing together hits will be tough. Hence, the best way to score is by the long-ball. The more hitters that can take advantage of the few mistakes thrown have the best chance of putting crooked numbers on the score board.
Any hitter with twelve or more home runs was counted as a player with the ability to deposit a ball in the bleachers. After crunching the numbers, we get the following rankings:
MFY - 1
SOX - 3
DET - 6
LAA - 20
The MFY rise to the top of the pack again as they can write in a lineup with power one through nine. The Sox and LAA each move up a spot and the Tigers stay put at six.
Without knowing which teams will play in the three starter series, I would put the A.L. pennant odds at:
MFY - 1:1
SOX - 1.5:1
DET - 2:1
LAA - 3.5:1
Wednesday, September 09, 2009
CHERRY PICKING AND THEN SOME
The following is from Adam Kilgore on the Red Sox Extra Bases “blog.”
That’s six games against baseball’s best [Yankees and Angels], and 19 games against the American League’s true dregs. The average winning percentage of their remaining opponents is .466; on average, that equates to the Sox playing a 75-win team based on 162 games) 25 times.
They [Rangers] get to play the Indians three times, including twice today, and the Athletics three times. But they have to play the Angels seven times and the Mariners six times. The average winning percentage of their remaining opponents is .510; on average; the Rangers will play an 83-win team 26 times.
But with less than a month left and the Sox still vying with the Rangers, they have an easier path to the playoffs than their main competition.
***
“Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics.”
First off, I'm not sure on Kilgore's math. Second, even if we agree that winning % is the best measure of a team's ability rather than run differential, then the comparison should be a weighted average based on games. Third, the Sox calc should NOT EXCLUDE the NYY and LAA. To be fair, Kilgore could have used a WAvg, included NYY and LAA and he or I just did the arithmetic incorrectly, but that does not seem to be the case.
Regardless, using a WAvg based on run differential and # of games to play as the data points to calculate winning %, excluding yesterday/Tuesday, put the Sox opponents at 495 v. 508 for the Rangers. The Sox do NOT have a significantly easier schedule than the Rangers going forward.
The most pressing issue is the offensive’s lack of production on the road. If the Rangers hang close through next week and Sox can’t score away from Fenway, then it is going to be a dog fight in the final week of the season.
The following is from Adam Kilgore on the Red Sox Extra Bases “blog.”
That’s six games against baseball’s best [Yankees and Angels], and 19 games against the American League’s true dregs. The average winning percentage of their remaining opponents is .466; on average, that equates to the Sox playing a 75-win team based on 162 games) 25 times.
They [Rangers] get to play the Indians three times, including twice today, and the Athletics three times. But they have to play the Angels seven times and the Mariners six times. The average winning percentage of their remaining opponents is .510; on average; the Rangers will play an 83-win team 26 times.
But with less than a month left and the Sox still vying with the Rangers, they have an easier path to the playoffs than their main competition.
***
“Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics.”
First off, I'm not sure on Kilgore's math. Second, even if we agree that winning % is the best measure of a team's ability rather than run differential, then the comparison should be a weighted average based on games. Third, the Sox calc should NOT EXCLUDE the NYY and LAA. To be fair, Kilgore could have used a WAvg, included NYY and LAA and he or I just did the arithmetic incorrectly, but that does not seem to be the case.
Regardless, using a WAvg based on run differential and # of games to play as the data points to calculate winning %, excluding yesterday/Tuesday, put the Sox opponents at 495 v. 508 for the Rangers. The Sox do NOT have a significantly easier schedule than the Rangers going forward.
The most pressing issue is the offensive’s lack of production on the road. If the Rangers hang close through next week and Sox can’t score away from Fenway, then it is going to be a dog fight in the final week of the season.
Monday, September 07, 2009
A TALE OF TWO TEAMS: THE RED SOX AT HOME V ROAD
Even after adding a very good hitter in Victor Martinez, the Red Sox still can not score on the road. Post-V-Mart, the Olde Towne Team is averaging 6.57 runs per game at friendly Fenway and winning eleven out of fourteen. On the road, they are 8-12. In those twenty games, the Red Sox have put up an average of 4.9 runs a contest, which isn’t so bad, but it is misleading. Exclude V-Mart’s first game at Camden Yard, when they went for a double Teddy Ballgame (18 runs) and the Sox have averaged only four runs a game. This has to improve or we may not see the postseason.
Even after adding a very good hitter in Victor Martinez, the Red Sox still can not score on the road. Post-V-Mart, the Olde Towne Team is averaging 6.57 runs per game at friendly Fenway and winning eleven out of fourteen. On the road, they are 8-12. In those twenty games, the Red Sox have put up an average of 4.9 runs a contest, which isn’t so bad, but it is misleading. Exclude V-Mart’s first game at Camden Yard, when they went for a double Teddy Ballgame (18 runs) and the Sox have averaged only four runs a game. This has to improve or we may not see the postseason.
Thank you - Red Sox!
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