Friday, July 31, 2009
MULTIPLE SOURCES ARE REPORTING THAT RED SOX SET TO ACQUIRE VICTOR MARTINEZ!!!!
Monday, July 27, 2009
RED SOX 6-4-3 DOUBLE PLAY
* John Smoltz is averaging nearly a strikeout per inning while walking only five in thirty innings. He may have lost a tick or two on the fastball but his stuff is still good. Smoltz needs to be more consistent and locate better. When Wake returns, which may not be right around the corner (he didn’t play catch today as scheduled according to Amalie Benjamin) and Smoltz is still not being productive, does he work on things in RI, gets DFA or does Buchholz gets optioned?
* Prediction: Marco Scutaro to the Twinkies and the return of Orlando Cabrera to the Sox. Theo goes the cheaper prospect route. Since Cabrera can not be offered arbitration if he is classified as a Type A, his trade value is less than Scutaro’s. Plus, O.C. is making close to four times Scutaro.
***** Posts are going to be about once a week since I've found Twitter so follow El Guapo's Ghost. It is not lame. Twitter has a questionable brand right now; just like blogs and facebook did a year or so ago. It will pass too.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
RANDOM RUMBLINGS OVER THE BREAK
As always, random rumblings are written in a joking and not so serious tone.
No Red Sox and no Remy makes El Guapo’s Ghost go something something, so…
* The NESN pre and post-game has become intolerable. Even with my biases - Tom Caron, fellow SMC alumni, Jim Rice my favorite player growing up (I used to foolishly argue with my late Meme that Rice was better than Teddy Williams), the most underrated Boston media member Nick Cafardo, it has been awful. I don’t need: a on air reading of the Boston Globe Red Sox section, the on air gorgeous Heidi Watney doing some segment to suck up time, and the thousands of commercials, sponsors and cross-promos. When do the red sock condoms hit the market?
* Speaking of the greatest hitter to ever live, how many Bostonians gave up their HBO subscriptions? A documentary on Teddy Ballgame and Teddy Kennedy debuting in the same month.
* Since our health insurance premiums are not subject to federal and state taxes, the government/we tax payers are essentially subsidizing the for profit companies that we love to hate.
* Without the Sox and I’m not going to read (that would be crazy), TV is limited. Anthony Bourdain is back. Weeds is good - everyone needs more @kevin_nealon - but Nancy and Celia’s characters are stale. Following the Botwins is Nurse Jackie. It tries to fit a few ER stories and Jackie’s personal/family/professional issues while developing entertaining characters in 22 minutes. It is just too much for that time slot. It could be a metaphor for Jackie’s life but it still doesn’t make for great TV. Thankfully, Mad Men is back at the end of the month and in about two months Californication and Dexter or should I say Kobe will be back (Joey Gonzales, L.A. via the Sports Guy).
* I eat out often + I twitter = I like restaurants that tweet. Anyway, I find it ironic that my favorite eating establishment, The Alchemist, is twenty-five minutes away although I have about 30 plus restaurants within a five block radius.
* Don’t pass up the chance to see Esperanza Spalding. She is incredible. David Letterman called her, “The coolest person we’ve ever had on the show.”
As always, random rumblings are written in a joking and not so serious tone.
No Red Sox and no Remy makes El Guapo’s Ghost go something something, so…
* The NESN pre and post-game has become intolerable. Even with my biases - Tom Caron, fellow SMC alumni, Jim Rice my favorite player growing up (I used to foolishly argue with my late Meme that Rice was better than Teddy Williams), the most underrated Boston media member Nick Cafardo, it has been awful. I don’t need: a on air reading of the Boston Globe Red Sox section, the on air gorgeous Heidi Watney doing some segment to suck up time, and the thousands of commercials, sponsors and cross-promos. When do the red sock condoms hit the market?
* Speaking of the greatest hitter to ever live, how many Bostonians gave up their HBO subscriptions? A documentary on Teddy Ballgame and Teddy Kennedy debuting in the same month.
* Since our health insurance premiums are not subject to federal and state taxes, the government/we tax payers are essentially subsidizing the for profit companies that we love to hate.
* Without the Sox and I’m not going to read (that would be crazy), TV is limited. Anthony Bourdain is back. Weeds is good - everyone needs more @kevin_nealon - but Nancy and Celia’s characters are stale. Following the Botwins is Nurse Jackie. It tries to fit a few ER stories and Jackie’s personal/family/professional issues while developing entertaining characters in 22 minutes. It is just too much for that time slot. It could be a metaphor for Jackie’s life but it still doesn’t make for great TV. Thankfully, Mad Men is back at the end of the month and in about two months Californication and Dexter or should I say Kobe will be back (Joey Gonzales, L.A. via the Sports Guy).
* I eat out often + I twitter = I like restaurants that tweet. Anyway, I find it ironic that my favorite eating establishment, The Alchemist, is twenty-five minutes away although I have about 30 plus restaurants within a five block radius.
* Don’t pass up the chance to see Esperanza Spalding. She is incredible. David Letterman called her, “The coolest person we’ve ever had on the show.”
Sunday, July 12, 2009
IN THIS ECONOMY, HALLADAY PROBABLY STAYS NORTH OF THE BORDER UNLESS THE PRICE COMES DOWN
Jon Heyman of SI wrote,
"…Jays people continue to talk to interested teams, telling them they seek two big-time prospects who'll be major-league ready by next year, including a prime hitter, and two very good prospects who are further away from the bigs."
No rationale baseball owner signs off dealing two near ready prospects and then some for Roy Halladay. Halladay's on-field abilities and asset value (market minus salary) are well known.
C.C. Sabathia recently signed a contract paying him an average annual value of $23 million, which establishing the top of the market for a true number one starter. The difference between $7.67M ($23 prorated for a 1/3 of 2009) less Halladay's prorated 2009 salary is $2.92M plus the 2010 variance puts his value around $10M. He is sick and a bargain, but the huge unknown, in this economy, is the boost in revenue the additional wins a club gets from Halladay. This variable will limit the number of suitors and return for the Ace.
This past winter a "prime hitter" cost around $10M per season (see: Ibanez, Dunn, Bradley, Burrell). A top prospect's current asset value from 2010-2015 is roughly $38M (net present value discounted at 2.5%). Even adjusting that the "big-time prospect" will fail 25% at becoming a "prime hitter", he is still worth $28.5M. Double that for the two near-Show ready players and we are talking a $57M. By using the same set of assumptions but forecasting the pair of prospects reaching the Jays in 2013 and giving them only 25% chance of succeeding yields a value of roughly $35M for both. The total asset value the Jays are seeking for Halladay is around $92M.
In summary, a club would need to be confident in adding about $80M in revenue over 1 1/3 seasons to reasonably justify meeting the Jays demand. In this economic environment with fans saving money and ad budgets being slashed, increasing sales is doubtful. An owner has to be willing to take a possible long-term loss for short-term glory or he/she has plans to sell the club in the coming years. Hence, it is unlikely that Halladay will be traded in the next few weeks unless the price comes down.
Jon Heyman of SI wrote,
"…Jays people continue to talk to interested teams, telling them they seek two big-time prospects who'll be major-league ready by next year, including a prime hitter, and two very good prospects who are further away from the bigs."
No rationale baseball owner signs off dealing two near ready prospects and then some for Roy Halladay. Halladay's on-field abilities and asset value (market minus salary) are well known.
C.C. Sabathia recently signed a contract paying him an average annual value of $23 million, which establishing the top of the market for a true number one starter. The difference between $7.67M ($23 prorated for a 1/3 of 2009) less Halladay's prorated 2009 salary is $2.92M plus the 2010 variance puts his value around $10M. He is sick and a bargain, but the huge unknown, in this economy, is the boost in revenue the additional wins a club gets from Halladay. This variable will limit the number of suitors and return for the Ace.
This past winter a "prime hitter" cost around $10M per season (see: Ibanez, Dunn, Bradley, Burrell). A top prospect's current asset value from 2010-2015 is roughly $38M (net present value discounted at 2.5%). Even adjusting that the "big-time prospect" will fail 25% at becoming a "prime hitter", he is still worth $28.5M. Double that for the two near-Show ready players and we are talking a $57M. By using the same set of assumptions but forecasting the pair of prospects reaching the Jays in 2013 and giving them only 25% chance of succeeding yields a value of roughly $35M for both. The total asset value the Jays are seeking for Halladay is around $92M.
In summary, a club would need to be confident in adding about $80M in revenue over 1 1/3 seasons to reasonably justify meeting the Jays demand. In this economic environment with fans saving money and ad budgets being slashed, increasing sales is doubtful. An owner has to be willing to take a possible long-term loss for short-term glory or he/she has plans to sell the club in the coming years. Hence, it is unlikely that Halladay will be traded in the next few weeks unless the price comes down.
Thursday, July 02, 2009
BIG TRADE OR NO TRADE LIKELY FOR THE SOX
According to Will Carroll, “…Synvisc is quick-acting and is removed by the body, putting him on the DL now would indicate that it didn't work…” But Lowell felt good and wanted to play tomorrow . Either the Sox are taking a more cautious course of action with the third baseman or Lowell is trying to gut it out similar to the end of last year. Regardless, it is unlikely that Lowell will have a prolonged stint on the DL, which could complicate the Sox roster management.
The Sox probably won’t be acquiring a Nick Johnson or Adam LaRoche since it would be at the expense of Mark Kotsay, without an additional move. The versatile veteran is necessary due to the fragility of Drew, Rocco’s inability to play everyday, Jon Van Every out for the rest of the year and Ellsbury desire to run through walls. Unless the Sox acquire a right-handed hitting RF that can handle center, like Ryan Spilborghs, then a big name first or third baseman is “not walking through that door.”
According to Will Carroll, “…Synvisc is quick-acting and is removed by the body, putting him on the DL now would indicate that it didn't work…” But Lowell felt good and wanted to play tomorrow . Either the Sox are taking a more cautious course of action with the third baseman or Lowell is trying to gut it out similar to the end of last year. Regardless, it is unlikely that Lowell will have a prolonged stint on the DL, which could complicate the Sox roster management.
The Sox probably won’t be acquiring a Nick Johnson or Adam LaRoche since it would be at the expense of Mark Kotsay, without an additional move. The versatile veteran is necessary due to the fragility of Drew, Rocco’s inability to play everyday, Jon Van Every out for the rest of the year and Ellsbury desire to run through walls. Unless the Sox acquire a right-handed hitting RF that can handle center, like Ryan Spilborghs, then a big name first or third baseman is “not walking through that door.”
Thank you - Red Sox!
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