El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

BRAD PENNY SUCKS!

For those who put stock in Penny's public display of self-analysis, this should be uplifting: "I'm pretty close. I felt pretty good. My mechanics felt fine to me, everything's going well - my velocity's there, my strength's there, it's just a couple bad breaks tonight and we lose the game."


"Uplifting"? If this as good as it gets, then Brad Penny should be sitting, traded, waived, released, or whatever. Penny should not be going back on the mound for the Sox because he simply SUCKS! It is a small sample but he was not projected (PECOTA pegged him with a 5.18 E.RA.) to be that good to begin with. Plus, the Sox have better options down on the farm right now and on the DL for the summer.

LOVIN’ THE LOONEY

Bay Being Canadian.



Now back to our regularly scheduled post…

BACK TO EVEN PAR

The Sox sweep brings them back to even par against the A.L. East rivals for a 4-2 record at Fenway. The Olde Towne Team should win a series at home.

Friday and Saturday’s games were similar in that each starter had difficulty, which allowed the offense and pen decide the outcome. Thankfully, the Sox pen was more effective than the MFY. Basically, the good guys kept the ball in the Park, aside Oki, and the Local Nine went deep three times to take the first two of the series.

On a personal note, Saturday was one of the most enjoyable games I’ve attended in some time. Warm, sunny, good free parking spot, a ton of runs and a Sox win. It was near perfect, except by the third inning the pair of jailbait sitting next to me was swapped for a MFY fan and a kid who loves cake a way too much. Which brings me to a new rule, hat tip to Bill Maher: A male can not take his shirt off when he is sitting next to another man with his shirt ON.

Sunday was unexpected. Of course, the “Holy Sh^t!“ a.k.a. straight steal of home by Jacoby Ellsbury, but also Dustin Pedroia, Nick Green and Jason Bay taking off on first movement of Andy Pettitte. The Road Runner out in center is the only one who should have the green light. No need to run into outs.

Justin Masterson was a pleasant surprise. He had great movement on his fastball and flashed a back door breaking ball to southpaws, if I‘m not mistaken. Masterson could be more valuable in the rotation than the pen. The other Texan PEDs pitcher was also effective.

After the starters departed, the Sox pitching depth shut the door on the best team money can buy. With each clubs usual arms being unavailable due to the crazy first two game, the Sox 17th and 18th pitchers on the depth chart came in to bridge the gap to the backup closer and that was that…a sweep.

The Sox beat the MFY’s best reliever, again, for a win. They won a slugfest on Saturday. And the Olde Towne Team called on their seventh starter and a pair of PawSox to shut down the MFY in series finale. It is a damn good sign when the Sox win games in multiple ways.

MFY SERIES

The game tonight and tomorrow will come down to command. If the four starters' command their stuff, runs will be few and far between. In that type of game, mistakes are the difference: a hanging breaking ball taken deep, a lead off walk and stolen base that allows a club to "manufacture a run", a blunder in the field or on the bases, etc. If a starter's command is off, then the opposing team will, at a minimum, get into the bullpen faster which favors the Sox. At home and better gloves gives a slight edge to the Olde Towne Team.

As for the series finale, get ready for a slugfest. Tek, Ortiz, Bay, Drew and Youk all kill the other Texas PEDs pitcher, but DP has his troubles versus the cut fastball-curveball southpaw. The MFY don't even need to stack their lineup with lefties against Masterson. He really does not have the stuff to shut down the MFY lineup. Get ready for a long Sunday Night game.

And don’t forget: MFY SUCK!

THOUGHTS ON DAVID ORTIZ AND THE CELTICS

This past week two national writers commented on David Ortiz. First, Buster Olney of ESPN.com:

“Opposing talent evaluators are stunned by the regression in his bat speed, by how different a hitter he seems to be as compared to what he was in his prime.”

In the same spirit, Ken Rosenthal said:

“Teams are not pitching Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz as carefully as they did in the past, one American League coach notes, sensing that above-average velocity gives him trouble. Ortiz, 33, needs to get his bat going earlier against good fastballs, leaving him more vulnerable to breaking pitches.”

After finally watching a full series, Big Papi showed very little to make me think otherwise. Fortunately, PECOTA is projecting the Sox to lead the A.L. in runs scored with the 2008 version of David Ortiz a.k.a. 265/270/500 hitter. Ortiz doesn’t need to be Big Papi; maybe we should adjust our expectations.

***

The Game 1 loss to the Bulls was evidence that the Celtics coaches, which seem to be a 3-to-1 player-to-coach ratio, can be brain dead. Any reasonably intelligent person would conclude after the first half that the Celtics needed to stop Rose and that would likely necessitate a different strategy. But as far as I could tell, the C’s did stuck with the same thing. Why didn’t they double Rose after he cross half court making him give up the ball, and then deny him getting it back or something different than allowing him to abuse Rondo?

Perhaps that’s why KG spent the second half in the locker room. He disagreed with the defensive tactics (of course, this is pure speculation). Any team can only have one leader.

Regardless, Ray Allen has to show up and Paul Pierce can’t be missing game winning freebies. The Bulls are not a good team.

QUESTIONING THE NEW MATH

It appears that the market has shifted. Position players with poor defensive reputations, with little regard of their skill with the wood, have fallen like the Dow Jones.

To varying degrees, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Adam Dunn, and Pat Burrell have all taken pay cuts from what they expected last summer. OBP is out; Zone Rating is in or whatever is your favorite defensive metric.

The added emphasis on glove work for a more complete position player evaluation is prudent, but it seems to have shifted too much. When Frank Catalonotto, Ray Durham, and Jim Edmonds are without jobs and Mark Kotsay, Mike Lamb, and Jason Michaels have Major League deals; something is amiss.

Forecasting fielding - by nature - is more difficult than hitting. Projecting fielding is dependent on getting the pitching portion of run prevention right. A key component has to be the number of fielding opportunities for a given player. Without precise pitching projections, it is highly unlikely to have accurate forecasts.

The inherent dependent nature of a fielding forecast should lead to discounting a player’s defensive value relative to his offensive production when projecting performance. The ranks of baseball’s unemployed would indicate that many clubs may not be discounting their glove work forecasts enough.

IT IS EARLY AND IT IS KIND OF A BIG DEAL

The Rays taking two out of three from the Sox at Fenway is the equivalent of getting your serve broken at Wimbledon. The Sox will have to break or win a series down in St. Pete to get even with the Rays. It is even a bigger deal since my A.L. MVP pick, B.J. Upton, wasn’t even in the lineup.

162-0

It is just one game, but Josh Beckett looked good and the data supports the notion. It is comforting after last October.

Any win over the Rays or MFY is big. But the best thing about today is that the local nine play again tomorrow!

2009 A.L. EAST PROJECTIONS

Baseball Prospectus is forecasting the MFY at 99 wins, the Sox at 95 and TB with 94 wins. BP forecasts runs scored and against based primarily on their PECOTA player projections, then plugs that into Bill James Pythagorean formula to calculate winning percentage. James’ Pythagorean equation has a 9% margin for error mostly due blow out, one-run and other close games. Besides the aforementioned run distribution, player forecasts, head-to-head record, inter-league play and the potential for additions to the organization can impact the projections. Run distribution and head-to-head record is too difficult, if even possible, to plan for and significantly impact. The baseball gods have more say on these two factors than any player, manager or general manager, which leaves three factors to analyze.

Inter-League Schedule

The A.L. East plays the N.L. East this year. The Sox play six against the Braves and MFY have two series versus the cross town Mets. The Olde Towne Team’s inter-league schedule is equal to the MFY. The Rays have the advantage with a weaker inter-league schedule. They play the Marlins six times and for some reason play the Rockies instead of the Braves. It would be a shame if the Rays just get ahead of either club by kicking the crap out of two teams that both project to only 71 wins. Mathematically, those nine games should boost the Rays by about 1.5 wins.

Player Projections

PECOTA does a good job at projecting player production, but injuries and odd career paths tend to give the system issues. With that in mind, a healthy Posada could easily blow away his 250/336/406 line in 361 PAs. Chamberlain is projected to have a 3.12 E.RA. but in only 140 innings. In thirty starts, Joba da DWI should log a minimum of 160 IN. The pair have upside, which would offset the question mark that is A-Roid. The 99 win total is solid, but A-Hole has to get his over 425 PAs and C.C. Sabathia needs to be on the mound for 220 IN. The MFY, as would every team, have a big drop off after the duo.

B.J. Upton played through shoulder injury last season. It was better in October and we know all too well that Upton went off in the postseason. PECOTA isn’t aware of his shoulder injury that killed his power and forecast him to hit only 15 dingers. Other than Carlos Pena, Pat Burrell and the relievers at the end of the game, everyone else is on the right side of 30. The Rays have more upside than down; 95+ wins would not be a big surprise.

PECOTA sees Jon Lester’s 2007 comeback from cancer season as a young pitcher that struggled. He spent time at four different levels. Hence, the system is skeptical of Lester’s 2008 year and projects him with a 4.57 E.R.A in 170 IN. Even though the southpaw could give something back in 2009, he should surpass his PECOTA forecast by a .5 E.R.A and 20 IN. Similar to Upton, Ortiz played with a bad wrist last year that hurts his projection for 2009 - 268/373/500 over 588 PAs. Unlike Bossman Junior, Big Papi is on the wrong side of 30 and relatively un-athletic slugger. A return to form is not out of the question, but don’t bet the farm. PECOTA projects Smoltz 3.69 E.R.A. to be the best of any Sox starter. If he makes more than 15 starts, the Olde Towne Team will likely be in good shape and top 95 wins.

Trade Targets

If the A’s and Tigers are out of the race, Matt Holliday and Magglio Ordonez are two bats that can change a race. Holliday will go to the team that puts together the best package of prospects. Ordonez’s contract takes the Rays out of the running and the MFY are unlikely to need an outfielder as are most large market contenders. Mags is mostly to be a Sox if not a Tiger in August. And keep dreaming, Miguel Cabrera is not going to be dealt.

Erik Bedard will be traded and could be a playoff race changer if he returns to form. The 2008 Bedard would be a nice fit for the Rays, as they could have David Price close and save his young arm. Jake Peavy’s contract likely takes the Rays out of the running. The Sox, MFY, Cubs, and others will battle for Peavy, who has no-trade rights. Although the Cubs and “others” may split their attention to Roy Halladay. The Jays will not trade Halladay within the A.L. East.

In summary, the MFY should take the A.L. East if they get and can stay healthy. If not and others do not step up, the MFY could be out of it in September. Outside of the OF/DH slots, they are not a deep club and could have trouble out maneuvering the Sox on the trade market. The Olde Towne Team has deeper pockets than the Rays and more near ready MLB prospects than the MFY. The combo gives them the best opportunity to bring in a top bat or starter that could be the difference in the local nine getting a ticket for October baseball.

Prediction

A.L. EAST
MFY - 97 wins - A-Roid comes back but is not the same player
SOX - 97 wins - Smoltz and Lester out perform their projections
TBR - 91 wins - Even though Upton goes 30-30, the pen fails causing them to have a poor record in close games

BASEBALL IS THE BEST

With Opening Night(?) a day away, I want to run down my nine reasons why I love this game more than any other.

1) After the long and hated New England winter, baseball is my symbol that spring and summer are back.

2) Numbers matter more in baseball. With all the new numbers that I love, the box score still tells a story pretty darn well.

3) Baseball has no time limit. Unlike most aspects of my life, time is irrelevant.

4) An average looking person can be a professional. A boy doesn’t need to be over six feet tall, weigh over 300 lb or run faster than a dog to dream about making it to the Show.

5) If the weather is bad, we’ll play another time. Baseball doesn’t make the fan endure watching a game in rain or even snow.

6) Not only is every Park different, but the playing field is too. The Green Monster, the short porch in right, and ivy in the outfield can impact the game and makes every game visually unique.

7) A summer day without baseball is a rare day.

8) Baseball is good entertainment value. The value of going to a MLB game is debatable; what is not is taking the clan to a minor league contest. Four hours at under $10 each is great value compared to the movies. And you aren’t given dirty looks when you talk to one another.

9) If you catch a baseball, you keep it and not much is better than that or this game!