Monday, March 30, 2009
MY FANTASY BASEBALL AUCTION
The volatile nature of pitching performance, relative to hitters, usually gears my dollar budget to hitters. But with three of the top 15 hitters (Ian Kinsler, Boss-man Junior Upton, Kevin Youkilis) in our fantasy baseball world - AL only and no MFY, my auction objective was to focus on pitching. The goal was accomplished.
League Parameters: $100 budget, eight team, 5x5 with OBP and HRA
Keepers:
Kinsler - 13
Upton - 12
Youk - 5
Kazmir - 7
Auctioned:
Jonathan Papelbon - 15
Zack Geinke - 15
Matt Wieters - 10
John Danks - 5
Matt Garza - 4
Mike Napoli - 4
Kevin Slowey - 3
Jack Cust - 2
Jed Lowrie - 2
J.D. Drew - 1
John Smoltz - 1
Naftali Feliz - 1
Only James Shields and Geinke were high production and low health risk starters. When Shields came off the board, I couldn't loose out on Geinke so I overpaid. My system had Wieters a buck lower with 370 plate appearances. I think he gets 450. Nabbing Napoli and his 20+ homers at catcher is worth $4, although my batting average could suffer.
Danks and Garza are both health risks due to big innings jumps last year. But at those prices with their stuff, it was worth the investment. Slowey is my pitching sleeper. The system had him valued at $8 and limited injury potential.
Lowrie, Cust and Drew assist in filling out my roster at low cost with some upside. Lowrie played with a bad wrist that the system does not consider. If platooned, Cust's batting average could be better than the projection. Is this the year Drew gets 600 plate appearances? Smoltz and Feliz are summer fantasy lottery tickets that could allow me to trade a starter in July. Overall, I'm happy with my team. I think I have a shot but doesn't everyone say that.
The volatile nature of pitching performance, relative to hitters, usually gears my dollar budget to hitters. But with three of the top 15 hitters (Ian Kinsler, Boss-man Junior Upton, Kevin Youkilis) in our fantasy baseball world - AL only and no MFY, my auction objective was to focus on pitching. The goal was accomplished.
League Parameters: $100 budget, eight team, 5x5 with OBP and HRA
Keepers:
Kinsler - 13
Upton - 12
Youk - 5
Kazmir - 7
Auctioned:
Jonathan Papelbon - 15
Zack Geinke - 15
Matt Wieters - 10
John Danks - 5
Matt Garza - 4
Mike Napoli - 4
Kevin Slowey - 3
Jack Cust - 2
Jed Lowrie - 2
J.D. Drew - 1
John Smoltz - 1
Naftali Feliz - 1
Only James Shields and Geinke were high production and low health risk starters. When Shields came off the board, I couldn't loose out on Geinke so I overpaid. My system had Wieters a buck lower with 370 plate appearances. I think he gets 450. Nabbing Napoli and his 20+ homers at catcher is worth $4, although my batting average could suffer.
Danks and Garza are both health risks due to big innings jumps last year. But at those prices with their stuff, it was worth the investment. Slowey is my pitching sleeper. The system had him valued at $8 and limited injury potential.
Lowrie, Cust and Drew assist in filling out my roster at low cost with some upside. Lowrie played with a bad wrist that the system does not consider. If platooned, Cust's batting average could be better than the projection. Is this the year Drew gets 600 plate appearances? Smoltz and Feliz are summer fantasy lottery tickets that could allow me to trade a starter in July. Overall, I'm happy with my team. I think I have a shot but doesn't everyone say that.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
MFY KILLER
Curt Schilling played a large and courageous role in curtailing the pessimist outlook of Red Sox fans forever and for that I will always be grateful. Enjoy your retirement, Schil. You will not be forgotten.
Curt Schilling played a large and courageous role in curtailing the pessimist outlook of Red Sox fans forever and for that I will always be grateful. Enjoy your retirement, Schil. You will not be forgotten.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
OPENING DAY COULD NOT BE HERE SOON ENOUGH
Even though spring has officially sprung, it snowed this morning on the west coast of New England. Spring Training and The World Baseball Classic games are better than nothing at all, but there is no substitute for real thing. I haven’t bee more fired up for an Opening Day since 2005. It is time for some Major League Baseball!
***
Today, Michael Silverman said “…there is nothing in their [the Red Sox front office] recent track record that suggests they will do anything other than wait to see how Bay does while keeping a close eye on younger trade possibilities throughout the season.” Also today, Buster Olney wrote Delmon Young is “…battling other players for at-bats this year, with no job assured, and if he has a tough year, he would be a candidate for another trade -- at less cost -- or perhaps even a non-tender.” Anyone on the trading block who has Yaz as their top comparable needs to be on Theo Epstein’s agenda. Plus, Young is only 23 and has two other Hall of Famers on his comparable list - Roberto Clemente and Tris Speaker. The Sox could steal another future hitting star that the Twins are trying to make him “hit like a little bitch.”
Even though spring has officially sprung, it snowed this morning on the west coast of New England. Spring Training and The World Baseball Classic games are better than nothing at all, but there is no substitute for real thing. I haven’t bee more fired up for an Opening Day since 2005. It is time for some Major League Baseball!
***
Today, Michael Silverman said “…there is nothing in their [the Red Sox front office] recent track record that suggests they will do anything other than wait to see how Bay does while keeping a close eye on younger trade possibilities throughout the season.” Also today, Buster Olney wrote Delmon Young is “…battling other players for at-bats this year, with no job assured, and if he has a tough year, he would be a candidate for another trade -- at less cost -- or perhaps even a non-tender.” Anyone on the trading block who has Yaz as their top comparable needs to be on Theo Epstein’s agenda. Plus, Young is only 23 and has two other Hall of Famers on his comparable list - Roberto Clemente and Tris Speaker. The Sox could steal another future hitting star that the Twins are trying to make him “hit like a little bitch.”
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
JON LESTER AND THE ARMS RACE
I couldn't do a better job than Alex Speier of WEEI in analyzing Jon Lester's new contract. As he states that it is very similar to Ervin Santana's deal. And in my mind, Lester and Santana are comparable pitchers. Both appeared to make great strides in fulfilling their promise as top of the rotation starters this past year, after two rocky ones. LAA set the market with Santana and the Sox paid Lester that rate.
Unlike position players, the Olde Towne Team should lock up talented club controlled hurlers at the going rate. According to some, teams have historically overpaid for starters relative to their contribution in the win column. To a certain extent, it is rationale for a club to overextend for top notch pitchers. Since each starter just moves down a peg - the old #2 becomes the new #3 and so on - and with pitchers being more of a health risk than hitters creates a near limitless demand for hurlers.
Assuming a top starting pitcher will go to the highest bidder, the MFY and Sox decision making process and business models do not change, the hurler will always be wearing pinstripes at a winter press conference in the Bronx. The Sox are unlikely to ever sign a Mike Mussina or C.C. Sabathia. Hence, the Olde Towne Team will need to develop talent to trade for pitching (Josh Beckett), sign talented starters prior to free agency (Lester), and take advantage of quasi-free markets (Dice-K/the posting process and the amateur draft) to keep up with the MFY in the arms race.
I couldn't do a better job than Alex Speier of WEEI in analyzing Jon Lester's new contract. As he states that it is very similar to Ervin Santana's deal. And in my mind, Lester and Santana are comparable pitchers. Both appeared to make great strides in fulfilling their promise as top of the rotation starters this past year, after two rocky ones. LAA set the market with Santana and the Sox paid Lester that rate.
Unlike position players, the Olde Towne Team should lock up talented club controlled hurlers at the going rate. According to some, teams have historically overpaid for starters relative to their contribution in the win column. To a certain extent, it is rationale for a club to overextend for top notch pitchers. Since each starter just moves down a peg - the old #2 becomes the new #3 and so on - and with pitchers being more of a health risk than hitters creates a near limitless demand for hurlers.
Assuming a top starting pitcher will go to the highest bidder, the MFY and Sox decision making process and business models do not change, the hurler will always be wearing pinstripes at a winter press conference in the Bronx. The Sox are unlikely to ever sign a Mike Mussina or C.C. Sabathia. Hence, the Olde Towne Team will need to develop talent to trade for pitching (Josh Beckett), sign talented starters prior to free agency (Lester), and take advantage of quasi-free markets (Dice-K/the posting process and the amateur draft) to keep up with the MFY in the arms race.
Sunday, March 08, 2009
TOP PROSPECTS IN THE SPRING
As regular readers know El Guapo’s Ghost has become essentially a weekly post/column this winter. The Sox cold stove season and my intolerance for redundancy - isn’t their like a million blogs now - has caused fewer posts. But this current lack of activity is no more than being on holiday. Anyway…
It was a pleasant surprise to see Dan Bard throw two breaking balls for swinging strikes and one called in today’s spring game. Of course, he was hitting upper 90’s on the gun and was around the plate. Bard has been doing that since college. If he can just keep hitters honest, so they do not cheat on the fastball, he could be a dominate reliever.
Lars Anderson also looked good. As advertised, he had patient plate appearances and went the other way. Even Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus is softening on Lars, his “…low-end projection would still make Anderson a .275/.360/.500.” An 860 OPS would make Anderson a league average first baseman last year, which just fine.
Junichi Tazawa looked okay in my first impression. He has a hitch or delay in his delivery. Tazawa’s fastball was in the low 90’s with little movement and command. He showed a nice curveball a few times. Tazawa struck out Evan Longoria on a change that dropped off the table. The next batter after a fastball, he threw back-to-back ones for another strike out. The change was clearly his best pitch today.
Josh Reddick and Mike Bowden also made appearances. They both mirrored their scouting reports. Reddick reminds me of a poor man’s Shea Hillenbrand and Bowden - a back of the rotation starter on a playoff team. Both could be pieces that get moved if necessary this summer.
As regular readers know El Guapo’s Ghost has become essentially a weekly post/column this winter. The Sox cold stove season and my intolerance for redundancy - isn’t their like a million blogs now - has caused fewer posts. But this current lack of activity is no more than being on holiday. Anyway…
It was a pleasant surprise to see Dan Bard throw two breaking balls for swinging strikes and one called in today’s spring game. Of course, he was hitting upper 90’s on the gun and was around the plate. Bard has been doing that since college. If he can just keep hitters honest, so they do not cheat on the fastball, he could be a dominate reliever.
Lars Anderson also looked good. As advertised, he had patient plate appearances and went the other way. Even Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus is softening on Lars, his “…low-end projection would still make Anderson a .275/.360/.500.” An 860 OPS would make Anderson a league average first baseman last year, which just fine.
Junichi Tazawa looked okay in my first impression. He has a hitch or delay in his delivery. Tazawa’s fastball was in the low 90’s with little movement and command. He showed a nice curveball a few times. Tazawa struck out Evan Longoria on a change that dropped off the table. The next batter after a fastball, he threw back-to-back ones for another strike out. The change was clearly his best pitch today.
Josh Reddick and Mike Bowden also made appearances. They both mirrored their scouting reports. Reddick reminds me of a poor man’s Shea Hillenbrand and Bowden - a back of the rotation starter on a playoff team. Both could be pieces that get moved if necessary this summer.
Thank you - Red Sox!
This site is not associated with the Boston Red Sox, Major League Baseball nor Major League Players Assoication
© 2003-2010 Thomas J. Fratamico, III
All Rights Reserved
