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Wednesday, January 17, 2007


BP’s weighted mean forecasts have been published. It spit out nothing earth shattering just a few interesting projections.

* PECOTA sees a comeback, like most pundits, for Coco Crisp. It has him hitting a 310/361/452 - AVG/OBP/SLG. Both the scouting and statistical communities are bullish on Coco.

* Dustin Pedroia is forecast to have the third highest VORP for a position player behind Manny and Ortiz, of course. Pedroia is projected to hit 294/360/431 - better and less expensive than Mark Loretta last season.

* Dice-K (E.R.A - 4.01), Schilling (4.02), Papelbon (4.28) and Beckett (4.47) all would have E.R.A.s lower than last year’s average of 4.56.

* Papelbon has a huge collapse rate of 71%. I suppose it is due to his role change and the lack of comparables relative to a pitcher whose role is stable.

* Manny Delcarmen is projected to be the Sox best reliever according to VORP with 10.2. He is followed by Brian Donnelly at 8.4. Mike Timlin scored a 10.6 in 2006. Paps’ was 38.6. As everyone knows, the Sox need to find a relief ace.

It appears that PECOTA’s projection is expected and reasonable for most Sox, besides prospect - Jed Lowrie.

After hitting a disappointing 262/352/374 in his first full season of pro-ball, PECOTA thinks he could put up a 279/341/397 in the Show. It is hard to imagine the 2005 first-round draft pick playing like Loretta in 2007. Hopefully, PECOTA is right and Lowrie stays healthy in 2007 and gets back on the fast track to Boston.


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