El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

BIGGEST MISTAKE?

After trying to piece together the Sox expected financial commitment regarding the Kim trade, it appears that Ramiro Mendoza’s deal is Theo’s biggest mistake based on VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) and total expenses in 2003 and 2004.

Kim’s total two year VORP was 12.8 and financial commitment, including this year’s, is $10.01 million. Kim gave the Sox roughly 1.28 VORP for every million dollars. Mendoza’s VORP total was 3.6 and he was paid $6.5 million for his services over the two year period. Mendoza’s mark was .55 VORP per million dollars.

Assuming Hillenbrand was not going to play much in 2003 and beyond, with Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar and David Ortiz ahead of him and being arbitration eligible in 2004, he was excluded from the analysis. Thus, Mendoza was clearly Theo’s biggest mistake and not Kim, although probably the larger disappointment. In hindsight, both deals were poor, but more importantly, the rationale behind each was solid and is the main reason for my Red Sox optimism.