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Tuesday, January 04, 2005


2004 Major MFY Starters and VORP from Baseball Prospectus

Javier Vazquez - 23.1
Jon Lieber - 27.3
Mike Mussina - 23.0
Kevin Brown - 26.4
Jose Contreras - 0.2
Orlando Hernandez - 27.6
Total - 127.6

2005 Projected MFY Starters and 2004 VORP or average of 2003 and 2004, which ever is higher

Mike Mussina - 41.2
Carl Pavano - 62.4
Subway Ho’s name sake - 40.3
Randy Johnson - 69.3
Kevin Brown - 46.5
Total - 259.7

The rotation is certainly scary, but we should not give the MFY the AL East and 120 win season just yet. The VORP difference is about 13 wins better than last season. The 2004 MFY runs scored/against differential predicted 87 wins. Assuming the MFY offense and defense does not improve; they project to win 100 games in 2005 as Don Theo EXPECTS.

"My philosophy with regard to the Yankees is, I assume they're going to win about 100 games a year and we have to win 100 if we want to win the division. Our whole gameplan is to try and win 95 to 100 every year to get us to the postseason so we have a chance to win the World Series every year…”

The MFY additions to the rotation are necessary for them to be competitive with the Sox and improve their probability of entrance into the playoff dance. The evil newcomers to the rotation do NOT guarantee a World Championship, an A.L. Pennant, the A.L. East crown or even a playoff spot. The MFY have questions like all club’s.


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